looked upon as the ultimate cause of all the turmoil。 His famous speech on the 〃irrepressible conflict〃 was everywhere quoted as an exultant prophecy of these terrible latter days。
It was long the custom to deny to Seward any good motive in a speech which he now delivered； just as it was to deny Webster any good motive for his famous 7th of March speech。 But such criticism is now less frequent than it used to be。 Both men were seeking the Presidency； both； we may fairly believe； were shocked by the turmoil of political currents； each tried oiling the waters； and in the attempt each ruined his candidacy。 Seward's speech in condemnation of John Brown in February； 1860； was an appeal to the conservative North against the radical North； and to many of his followers it seemed a change of front。 It certainly gained him no new friends and it lost him some old ones； so that his star as a presidential candidate began its decline。
The first ballot in the Republican convention surprised the country。 Of the votes； 233 were necessary for a choice。 Seward had only 173 1/2。 Next to him； with 102 votes； stood none of the leading candidates； but the comparatively obscure Lincoln。 A gap of more than 50 votes separated Lincoln from Cameron； Chase； and Bates。 On the second ballot Seward gained 11 votes； while Lincoln gained 79。 The enemies of Seward； finding it impossible to combine on any of the conspicuous candidates； were moving toward Lincoln； the man with fewest enemies。 The third ballot gave Lincoln the nomination。
We have seen that one of the basal questions of the time was which new political group should absorb the Whig remainder。 The Constitutional Union party aimed to accomplish this。 The Republicans sought to out…maneuver them。 They made their platform as temperate as they could and yet consistent with the maintenance of their opposition to Douglas and popular sovereignty； and they went no further in their anti…slavery demands than that the territories should be preserved for free labor。
Another basal question had been considered in the Republican platform。 Where would Northern capital stand in the reorganization of parties？ Was capital； like men； to become frankly sectional or would it remain impersonal； careless how nations rose or fell； so long as dividends continued？ To some extent capital had given an answer。 When； in the excitement following the John Brown incident； a Southern newspaper published a white list of New York merchants whose political views should commend them to Southerners； and a black list of those who were objectionable； many New Yorkers sought a place in the white list。 Northern capital had done its part in financing the revived slave trade。 August Belmont； the New York representative of the Rothschilds； was one of the close allies of Davis； Yancey； and Benjamin in their war upon Douglas。 In a word； a great portion of Northern capital had its heart where its investments werein the South。 But there was other capital which obeyed the same law； and which had investments in the North； and with this capital the Republicans had been trafficking。 They had succeeded in winning over the powerful manufacturing interests of Pennsylvania； the pivotal State that had elected Buchanan in 1856。
The steps by which the new party of enthusiasm made its deal with the body of capital which was not at one with Belmont and the Democrats are not essential to the present narrative。 Two facts suffice。 In 1857 a great collapse in American business〃the panic of fifty…seven〃led the commercial world to turn to the party in power for some scheme of redress。 But their very principles； among which was non…intervention in business； made the Democrats feeble doctors for such a need； and they evaded the situation。 The Republicans； with their insistence on positivism in government； had therefore an opportunity to make a new application of the doctrine of governmental aid to business。 In the spring of 1860； the Republican House of Representatives passed the Morrill tariff bill； consideration of which was postponed by the Democratic Senate。 But it served its purpose： it was a Republican manifesto。 The Republicans felt that this bill； together with their party platform； gave the necessary guarantee to the Pennsylvania manufacturers； and they therefore entered the campaign confident they would carry Pennsylvania nor was their confidence misplaced。
The campaign was characterized by three things： by an ominous quiet coupled with great intensity of feeling； by the organization of huge party societies in military form〃Wide…awakes〃 for Lincoln； numbering 400；000； and 〃Minute Men〃 for Breckenridge； with a membership chiefly Southern； and by the perfect frankness； in all parts of the South； of threats of secession in case the Republicans won。
In none of the States which eventually seceded were any votes cast for Lincoln； with the exception of a small number in Virginia。 In almost all the other Southern States and in the slave…holding border States； all the other candidates made respectable showings。 In Virginia； Tennessee； and Kentucky； Bell led。 But everywhere else in the other slave…holding States Breckinridge led； excepting in Missouri where Douglas won by a few hundred。 Every free State except New Jersey went for Lincoln。 And yet he did not have a majority of the popular vote； which stood： Lincoln； 1；866；459； Douglas； 1；376；957； Breckinridge； 849；781； Bell； 588；879*。 The majority against Lincoln was nearly a million。 The distribution of the votes was such that Lincoln had in the Electoral College； 180 electors； Breckinridge； 72； Bell； 39； Douglas； 12。 In neither House of Congress did the Republicans have a majority。
*The figures of the popular vote are variously given by different compilers。 These are taken from Stanwood； 〃A History of the Presidency〃。
CHAPTER V。 SECESSION
In tracing American history from 1854 to 1860 we cannot fail to observe that it reduces itself chiefly to a problem in that science which politicians understand so wellapplied psychology。 Definite types of men moulded by the conditions of those days are the determining factorsnot the slavery question in itself； not； primarily； economic forces； not a theory of government； nor a clash of theories； not any one thing； but the fluid； changeful forces of human nature； battling with circumstances and expressing themselves in the fashion of men's minds。 To say this is to acknowledge the fatefulness of sheer feeling。 Davis described the situation exactly when he said； in 1860； 〃A sectional hostility has been substituted for a general fraternity。〃 To his own question； 〃Where is the remedy？〃 he gave the answer； 〃In the hearts of the people。〃 There； after all； is the conclusion of the whole matter。 The strife between North and South had ceased to be a thing of the head； it had become a thing of the heart。 Granted the emotions of 1860； the way in which our country staggered into war has all the terrible fascination of a tragedy on the theme of fate。
That a secession movement would begin somewhere in the South before the end of 1860 was a foregone conclusion。 South Carolina was the logical place； and in South Carolina the inevitable occurred。 The presidential election was quickly followed by an election of delegates； on the 6th of December； to consider in convention the relations of the State with the Union。 The arguments before the Convention were familiar and had been advocated since 1851。 The leaders of the disunionists were the same who had led the unsuccessful movement of ten years before。 The central figure was Rhett； who never for a moment had wavered。 Consumed his life long by the one idea of the independence of South Carolina； that stern enthusiast pressed on to a triumphant conclusion。 The powers which had defeated him in 1851 were now either silent or converted； so that there was practically no opposition。 In a burst of passionate zeal the independence of South Carolina was proclaimed on December 20； 1860； by an ordinance of secession。
Simultaneously； by one of those dramatic coincidences which make history stranger than fiction； Lincoln took a step which supplemented this action and established its tragic significance。 What that step was will appear in a moment。
Even before the secession began； various types of men in politics had begun to do each after his kind。 Those whom destiny drove first into a corner were the lovers of political evasion。 The issue was forced upon them by the instantaneous demand of the people of South Carolina for possession of forts in Charleston Harbor which were controlled by the Federal Government。 Anticipating such a demand； Major Robert Anderson； the commandant at Charleston； had written to Buchanan on the 23d of November that 〃Fort Sumter and Castle Pinckney must be garrisoned immediately； if the Government determines to keep command of this harbor。〃
In the mind of every American of the party of political evasion； there now began a sad； internal conflict。 Every one of them had to choose among three courses： to shut his eyes and to continue to wail that the function of government is to do nothing； to make an end of political evasion and to come out frankly in approval of the Southern position； or to break with his own record； to emerge from his evasions on the opposite side； and to confess himself first and before all a supporter of the Union。 One or another of these three courses； sooner or later； every man of the President's following chose。 We shall see presently the relative strength of the three groups into which that following broke and what strange courses sometimes tragic； sometimes comictwo of the three pursued。 For the moment our concern is how the division manifested itself among the heads of the party at Washington。
The President took the first of the three courses。 He held it with the nervous clutch of a weak nature until overmastered by two grim men who gradually hypnotized his will。 The turning…point for Buchanan； and the last poor crisis in his inglorious career； came on Sunday； December 30th。 Before that day arrived； his vacillation had moved his friends to pity and his enemies to scorn。 One of his best friends wrote privately； 〃The President is pale wit