attoo parlors。 Go into day…trading; and you’ll see more vendors than you can shake a stick at。 There is money to be made from turkeys whose market life is measured in months or weeks。
任何生意的目的就是赚钱。好公司也会满足老板和员工的心理需求,但是赚钱才是企业的重点。交易者如果被刺激吸引,就忘了钱的事,一头跳进冲动交易。经纪商鼓励日内交易是因为输家就像醉酒的水手一样,在软件,数据,系统,甚至培训方面浪费钱,大部分人连交易都没做过,就出局了。去港口附近,你会看见很多酒吧,妓院,和纹身店。去做日内交易,你会发现你要骂的生意人太多了。他们从散户身上赚钱,散户的市场生命只有几个月或几周。
Successful day…traders test patterns and systems; measure risks and rewards; and focus on building equity。 Winners tend to be emotionally cool。 If day…trading attracts you; you must answer several questions:
成功的交易者测试模式和系统,计算风险和回报,并关注资金的增长。赢家一般很冷静。如果日内交易能吸引你,你必须回答几个问题:
Are you successfully trading with end…of…day charts? If the answer is “no;” stay away from day…trading。 You need a minimum of one year successful trading experience before attempting to day…trade。
你是否能用日内图成功交易?如果答案是:“否”,请不要做日内交易。在做日内交易之前,你至少需要一年成功交易经验。
Do you have an addictive streak? If you have a history of drinking; drugs; overeating; or gambling; stay as far away as possible from day…trading because it will trigger your addictive tendency and destroy your account。
你容易上瘾吗? 如果你曾经醉酒,吸毒,激动或赌博,尽量远离日内交易,因为它会让你上瘾,并摧毁你的账户。
Do you have a written business plan? How much money will you trade? In what markets? How will you choose entries and exits? How will you manage risks; use stops; and allocate capital? Do not go near day…trading without a written plan。 Be sure to keep separate records for day…trading and position trading。 Find out which one is more profitable for you。
你是否写过生意计划?你要交易多少资金?在哪个市场?如何选择进场和出场?如何管理风险,如何止损,如何分配资金?如果没有书面的计划,不要接近日内交易。一定要分开保留日内交易和仓位交易的记录。看看哪个比较赚钱。
Choosing the Market
选择市场
Day…trading pares to position trading like flying to driving。 fortably seated behind the wheel of a car you can lean back; listen to music; use a cell phone; and even glance at a magazine while stopped at a red light。 Do not attempt that in a jet。
日内交易和仓位交易的区别就像是开飞机和开车的区别。你可以舒服地坐在车里,向后躺着,听音乐,打手机,在等绿灯时还可以看看杂志。开飞机时可不要这么做。
Day…trading demands total concentration on a single market。 It is like serial monogamy … you may trade several markets in your career; but only one at any given time。 What market will you choose? The two essential features of a good day…trading market are high liquidity and volatility。
日内交易要求对一个市场高度关注。就像是一夫一妻制——你可以在多个市场交易,但一次只能交易一个市场。选择哪个市场?日内交易的2个关键特征是高流动性和波动性。
Liquidity refers to the average daily volume of your trading vehicle … the higher; the better。 It is easy to join a huge crowd and just as easy to leave without drawing attention to yourself and distorting the market with your order。 When you place a market order to buy or sell a thinly traded stock or a modity; you give the pros a license to skin you alive in slippage。 If you use a limit order; it may never get filled。 Trading a big liquid market; such as IBM or soybeans; allows you to get in and out more easily with less slippage。
流动性指每天的平均成交量——越高越好。加入大众是容易的,安静地离开也很容易,在市场下单扰乱市场也容易。如果你在平静的股票或商品期货市场内下单,你给了专业人士利用滑点活剥你的执照。如果你下限价单,你的订单永远不成交。在流动性的市场,比如IBM或大豆,让你进出比较容易,滑点亏损少。
Volatility refers to the average daily range of your trading vehicle。 The greater the distance between the high and the low of the day; the bigger your target。 Shooting at a big target is easier than shooting at a tiny one。 Remember our discussion of channels? If you know how to trade; you will get more money from a wide channel; at any level of skill。 Someone who trades at C level and takes 10% from a channel will get 1 point from a 10…point channel; but 2 points from a 20…point channel。 A C…level trader has no business day…trading; but even an A trader wants as big a target as possible。
波动性指平均每天的波动范围。每天最高点和最低点的距离越大,你的目标就越大。找大目标比找小目标好。还记得我们谈过的通道吗?如果你知道怎么交易,不管你的水平如何,你都能在比较宽的通道赚到更多的钱。一些人的水平是C,能赚到通道的10%,在10点的通道会赚到1点,在20点的通道能赚到2点。C水平的交易者不能做日内交易,但是即使是A水平的交易者也想尽量多赚钱。
You can find good liquidity and volatility in the leading stocks; futures; and currencies。 Another important feature of a day…trading market is its personality。 Some markets move smoothly; others like to jump。 Bonds; for example; tend to spend a day or two in a very narrow range; then explode; moving more in half an hour than in several preceding days; and then fall asleep again。 Trading them is like infantry fighting … 90% sheer boredom and 10% sheer terror。
你可以在股票,期货和外汇市场找到好的流动性和波动性。日内交易市场的另一个重要特征就是它的个性。一些市场波动平静,其它市场喜欢蹦跳。比如债券,1,2天在狭窄的区间,然后爆发,在半个多小时波动了很多,然后又平静了。交易它们就像是步兵打仗——90%的无聊和10%的恐惧。
What markets should you day…trade? In stocks; look at those that show up on the list of the most active issues of the day。 That’s where the action is。 These stocks’ liquidity is very high; and their volatility tends to be good。 Explore the list of top gainers and losers for the day。 When the same name shows up on that list day in and day out; it is clearly among the most volatile issues; with great day…trading potential。
你应该在哪个市场做日内交易?在股市,寻找当日最活跃的股票,这就是波动所在。这些股票的流动性很高,它们的波动性很好。寻找当天最赚的和最亏的。如果同样的股票多次出现,很显然它是最具有波动性的,具有日内交易的潜力。
When it es to futures; make your first steps in such relatively peaceful markets as corn; sugar; or copper。 Once you’ve learned the ropes; consider moving up to stock index futures or the futures on the German Bund; both among the favorite vehicles of professional day…traders。
当谈到期货时,开始在相对平静的市场交易,比如玉米,白糖,铜。一旦你学会了规则,可以考虑换到股指期货,或者是德国债券期货,这两个都是专业日内交易者最喜欢的市场。
Analysis and Decision Making
分析和决策
If you remove price and time markings from a chart; you won’t be able to tell whether it is weekly; daily; or intraday。 Markets are fractal; to borrow a term from chaos theory。 To recall our earlier discussion; the seashore is fractal; since the coastline looks equally jagged from any height。 Since charts in different timeframes are so alike; we may analyze them using similar methods。
如果你把图表的价格和时间去掉,你分不清是周线图,还是日线图或日内图。市场是分形,借用了混沌理论。回忆之前我们谈论的内容,海岸是分形,因为无论从哪个高度看,海岸线都是锯齿装的。因为每个时间周期的图表也相似,我们也许可以用类似的方法来分析。
ing to day…trading after a year or more of successful position trading gives you a great advantage。 You can use the same methods; and only have to speed them up。 You can use the principles of Triple Screen to make strategic decisions on longer…term charts and tactical choices on shorter…term charts。
当1年或多年后,你的仓位交易取得了优势再做日内交易。你可以用同样的方法,仅仅是加快速度。你可以用三重滤网的原则做策略决定,把长期图表的战术选择用在短期图表上。
SCREEN ONE
第一重滤网
Analyze your market on a longer…term chart; using trend…following indicators; and make a strategic decision to trade long; short; or stand aside。
用长期图表分析市场,用趋势跟踪指标,然后做策略决定,做多,做空或观望。
Choose the timeframe you prefer to trade and call it intermediate。 Let us select a five…minute chart for our intermediate timeframe; with each bar representing five minutes of trading。 You can choose a longer chart if you wish; but not much shorter; as that might pit you against institutional scalpers。 To stand pletely apart from the crowd; you may select an unorthodox length; such as seven or nine minutes。
选择你喜欢的时间周期,称为中周期。让我们把5分钟图作为中周期,每个竹线代表5分钟。如果你愿意你可以选择更长的图表,但不要太短,太短的周期容易让你被机构剥头皮。要想远离大众,你可以选择不常用的长度,比如7分钟或9分钟。
Figure 6。3 Day…Trading … 25…Minute Chart
图6。3 日内交易——25分钟图
If we prefer a five…minute chart for day…trading; we should start our analysis with a timeframe that is five times longer; a 25…minute chart。 Different stocks go in and of out of favor with day…traders。 Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) is popular today; with strong; healthy trends and no gaps。 There is a downtrend on Monday; which bottoms out on Tuesday; turns up on Wednesday; and rises into Friday; with a pullback at the end of that day as longs take profits before the weekend。
如果我们喜欢5分钟图做日内交易,我们应该分析更长的时间周期25分钟图。日内交易者进出不同股票。人类基因科学股票现在很火,上涨强势,健康,没有缺口。周一下跌,周二到底,周三上涨,上涨到周五,当天发生了回调,最好兑现利润。
There is a strong buy signal right at the opening on Wednesday as the EMA turns up; confirmed by the uptick of MACD…Histogram。 As EMA keeps rising; it tells us to trade HGSI from the long side; the first screen of Triple Screen is bullish。 This signal is much more important than any uptick or downtick of MACD…Histogram。 When MACD rises in gear with the EMA; it suggests trading larger size; but when it declines; it is a perfectly normal “breathing” behavior; as long as there is no bearish divergence。
周三开盘时有强烈的买入信号,均线上涨,MACD柱的上涨也确认了。当均线上涨时,它告诉我们要做多人类基因科学,三重滤网的第一重滤网看涨。这个信号比MACD柱的任何上涨或下跌都重要。当MACD和均线同时上涨,它建议仓位要大,但是当它下跌时,它只是完美的正常的“喘气”,因为此时并没有看跌背离。
At the right edge of the chart the market is closing for the weekend。 The EMA is slightly rising; so bulls have to be given the benefit of doubt。 Also; MACD…Histogram has declined to the level normally associated with bottoms; it is clo