we do know is； that the more the past and present are known； the
more the future can be predicted； and that no one dreams of
doubting the fixity of the future in cases where he is fully
cognisant of both past and present； and has had experience of the
consequences that followed from such a past and such a present on
previous occasions。 He perfectly well knows what will happen； and
will stake his whole fortune thereon。
〃And this is a great blessing； for it is the foundation on which
morality and science are built。 The assurance that the future is
no arbitrary and changeable thing； but that like futures will
invariably follow like presents； is the groundwork on which we lay
all our plansthe faith on which we do every conscious action of
our lives。 If this were not so we should be without a guide； we
should have no confidence in acting； and hence we should never act；
for there would be no knowing that the results which will follow
now will be the same as those which followed before。
〃Who would plough or sow if he disbelieved in the fixity of the
future？ Who would throw water on a blazing house if the action of
water upon fire were uncertain？ Men will only do their utmost when
they feel certain that the future will discover itself against them
if their utmost has not been done。 The feeling of such a certainty
is a constituent part of the sum of the forces at work upon them；
and will act most powerfully on the best and most moral men。 Those
who are most firmly persuaded that the future is immutably bound up
with the present in which their work is lying； will best husband
their present； and till it with the greatest care。 The future must
be a lottery to those who think that the same combinations can
sometimes precede one set of results； and sometimes another。 If
their belief is sincere they will speculate instead of working：
these ought to be the immoral men； the others have the strongest
spur to exertion and morality； if their belief is a living one。
〃The bearing of all this upon the machines is not immediately
apparent； but will become so presently。 In the meantime I must
deal with friends who tell me that； though the future is fixed as
regards inorganic matter； and in some respects with regard to man；
yet that there are many ways in which it cannot be considered as
fixed。 Thus； they say that fire applied to dry shavings； and well
fed with oxygen gas； will always produce a blaze； but that a coward
brought into contact with a terrifying object will not always
result in a man running away。 Nevertheless； if there be two
cowards perfectly similar in every respect； and if they be
subjected in a perfectly similar way to two terrifying agents；
which are themselves perfectly similar； there are few who will not
expect a perfect similarity in the running away； even though a
thousand years intervene between the original combination and its
being repeated。
〃The apparently greater regularity in the results of chemical than
of human combinations arises from our inability to perceive the
subtle differences in human combinationscombinations which are
never identically repeated。 Fire we know； and shavings we know；
but no two men ever were or ever will be exactly alike； and the
smallest difference may change the whole conditions of the problem。
Our registry of results must be infinite before we could arrive at
a full forecast of future combinations； the wonder is that there is
as much certainty concerning human action as there is； and
assuredly the older we grow the more certain we feel as to what
such and such a kind of person will do in given circumstances； but
this could never be the case unless human conduct were under the
influence of laws； with the working of which we become more and
more familiar through experience。
〃If the above is sound； it follows that the regularity with which
machinery acts is no proof of the absence of vitality； or at least
of germs which may be developed into a new phase of life。 At first
sight it would indeed appear that a vapour…engine cannot help going
when set upon a line of rails with the steam up and the machinery
in full play； whereas the man whose business it is to drive it can
help doing so at any moment that he pleases； so that the first has
no spontaneity； and is not possessed of any sort of free will；
while the second has and is。
〃This is true up to a certain point； the driver can stop the engine
at any moment that he pleases； but he can only please to do so at
certain points which have been fixed for him by others； or in the
case of unexpected obstructions which force him to please to do so。
His pleasure is not spontaneous； there is an unseen choir of
influences around him； which make it impossible for him to act in
any other way than one。 It is known beforehand how much strength
must be given to these influences； just as it is known beforehand
how much coal and water are necessary for the vapour…engine itself；
and curiously enough it will be found that the influences brought
to bear upon the driver are of the same kind as those brought to
bear upon the enginethat is to say； food and warmth。 The driver
is obedient to his masters； because he gets food and warmth from
them； and if these are withheld or given in insufficient quantities
he will cease to drive； in like manner the engine will cease to
work if it is insufficiently fed。 The only difference is； that the
man is conscious about his wants； and the engine （beyond refusing
to work） does not seem to be so； but this is temporary； and has
been dealt with above。
〃Accordingly； the requisite strength being given to the motives
that are to drive the driver； there has never； or hardly ever； been
an instance of a man stopping his engine through wantonness。 But
such a case might occur； yes； and it might occur that the engine
should break down： but if the train is stopped from some trivial
motive it will be found either that the strength of the necessary
influences has been miscalculated； or that the man has been
miscalculated； in the same way as an engine may break down from an
unsuspected flaw； but even in such a case there will have been no
spontaneity； the action will have had its true parental causes：
spontaneity is only a term for man's ignorance of the gods。
〃Is there； then； no spontaneity on the part of those who drive the
driver？〃
Here followed an obscure argument upon this subject； which I have
thought it best to omit。 The writer resumes：… 〃After all then it
comes to this； that the difference between the life of a man and
that of a machine is one rather of degree than of kind； though
differences in kind are not wanting。 An animal has more provision
for emergency than a machine。 The machine is less versatile； its
range of action is narrow； its strength and accuracy in its own
sphere are superhuman； but it shows badly in a dilemma； sometimes
when its normal action is disturbed； it will lose its head； and go
from bad to worse like a lunatic in a raging frenzy： but here；
again； we are met by the same consideration as before； namely； that
the machines are still in their infancy； they are mere skeletons
without muscles and flesh。
〃For how many emergencies is an oyster adapted？ For as many as are
likely to happen to it； and no more。 So are the machines； and so
is man himself。 The list of casualties that daily occur to man
through his want of adaptability is probably as great as that
occurring to the machines； and every day gives them some greater
provision for the unforeseen。 Let any one examine the wonderful
self…regulating and self…adjusting contrivances which are now
incorporated with the vapour…engine； let him watch the way in which
it supplies itself with oil； in which it indicates its wants to
those who tend it； in which； by the governor； it regulates its
application of its own strength； let him look at that store…house
of inertia and momentum the fly…wheel； or at the buffers on a
railway carriage； let him see how those improvements are being
selected for perpetuity which contain provision against the
emergencies that may arise to harass the machines； and then let him
think of a hundred thousand years； and the accumulated progress
which they will bring unless man can be awakened to a sense of his
situation； and of the doom which he is preparing for himself。 ｛6｝
〃The misery is that man has been blind so long already。 In his
reliance upon the use of steam he has been betrayed into increasing
and multiplying。 To withdraw steam power suddenly will not have
the effect of reducing us to the state in which we were before its
introduction； there will be a general break…up and time of anarchy
such as has never been known； it will be as though our population
were suddenly doubled； with no additional means of feeding the
increased number。 The air we breathe is hardly more necessary for
our animal life than the use of any machine； on the strength of
which we have increased our numbers； is to our civilisation； it is
the machines which act upon man and make him man； as much as man
who has acted upon and made the machines； but we must choose
between the alternative of undergoing much present suffering； or
seeing ourselves gradually superseded by our own creatures； till we
rank no higher in comparison with them； than the beasts of the
field with ourselves。
〃Herein lies our danger。 For many seem inclined to acquiesce in so
dishonourable a future。 They say that although man should become
to the machines what the horse and dog are to us； yet that he will
continue to exist； and will probably be better off in a state of
domestication under the beneficent rule of the machines than in his
present wild condition。 We treat our domestic animals with much
kindness。 We give them whatever we believe to be the best for
them； and there can be no doubt that our use of meat has increased
their happiness rather than detracted from it。 In like manner
there is reason to hope that the machines will use us kindly； for
their existence will be in a great measure dependent upon ours；
they will rule us with a rod of iron； but they will not eat us；
they will not only require our services in the re