essays and lectures- 第8部分

and　the　bad　man　alike　seem　to　lose　the　power　of　free　will；　for　the

one　is　morally　unable　to　sin；　the　other　physically　incapacitated

for　reformation。



And　of　the　influence　of　climate　and　temperature　in　forming　the

nature　of　man　（a　conception　perhaps　pressed　too　far　in　modern　days

when　the　'race　theory'　is　supposed　to　be　a　sufficient　explanation

of　the　Hindoo；　and　the　latitude　and　longitude　of　a　country　the　best

guide　to　its　morals（6））　Aristotle　is　completely　unaware。　　I　do　not

allude　to　such　smaller　points　as　the　oligarchical　tendencies　of　a

horse…breeding　country　and　the　democratic　influence　of　the

proximity　of　the　sea　（important　though　they　are　for　the

consideration　of　Greek　history）；　but　rather　to　those　wider　views　in

the　seventh　book　of　his　POLITICS；　where　he　attributes　the　happy

union　in　the　Greek　character　of　intellectual　attainments　with　the

spirit　of　progress　to　the　temperate　climate　they　enjoyed；　and

points　out　how　the　extreme　cold　of　the　north　dulls　the　mental

faculties　of　its　inhabitants　and　renders　them　incapable　of　social

organisation　or　extended　empire；　while　to　the　enervating　heat　of

eastern　countries　was　due　that　want　of　spirit　and　bravery　which

then；　as　now；　was　the　characteristic　of　the　population　in　that

quarter　of　the　globe。



Thucydides　has　shown　the　causal　connection　between　political

revolutions　and　the　fertility　of　the　soil；　but　goes　a　step　farther

and　points　out　the　psychological　influences　on　a　people's　character

exercised　by　the　various　extremes　of　climate　…　in　both　cases　the

first　appearance　of　a　most　valuable　form　of　historical　criticism。



To　the　development　of　Dialectic；　as　to　God；　intervals　of　time　are

of　no　account。　　From　Plato　and　Aristotle　we　pass　direct　to

Polybius。



The　progress　of　thought　from　the　philosopher　of　the　Academe　to　the

Arcadian　historian　may　be　best　illustrated　by　a　comparison　of　the

method　by　which　each　of　the　three　writers；　whom　I　have　selected　as

the　highest　expression　of　the　rationalism　of　his　respective　age；

attained　to　his　ideal　state：　　for　the　latter　conception　may　be　in　a

measure　regarded　as　representing　the　most　spiritual　principle　which

they　could　discern　in　history。



Now；　Plato　created　his　on　A　PRIORI　principles；　Aristotle　formed　his

by　an　analysis　of　existing　constitutions；　Polybius　found　his

realised　for　him　in　the　actual　world　of　fact。　　Aristotle　criticised

the　deductive　speculations　of　Plato　by　means　of　inductive　negative

instances；　but　Polybius　will　not　take　the　'Cloud　City'　of　the

REPUBLIC　into　account　at　all。　　He　compares　it　to　an　athlete　who　has

never　run　on　'Constitution　Hill；'　to　a　statue　so　beautiful　that　it

is　entirely　removed　from　the　ordinary　conditions　of　humanity；　and

consequently　from　the　canons　of　criticism。



The　Roman　state　had　attained　in　his　eyes；　by　means　of　the　mutual

counteraction　of　three　opposing　forces；　（7）　that　stable　equilibrium

in　politics　which　was　the　ideal　of　all　the　theoretical　writers　of

antiquity。　　And　in　connection　with　this　point　it　will　be　convenient

to　notice　here　how　much　truth　there　is　contained　in　the　accusation

often　brought　against　the　ancients　that　they　knew　nothing　of　the

idea　of　Progress；　for　the　meaning　of　many　of　their　speculations

will　be　hidden　from　us　if　we　do　not　try　and　comprehend　first　what

their　aim　was；　and　secondly　why　it　was　so。



Now；　like　all　wide　generalities；　this　statement　is　at　least

inaccurate。　　The　prayer　of　Plato's　ideal　City　…　＇Greek　text　which

cannot　be　reproduced＇；　might　be　written　as　a　text　over　the　door　of

the　last　Temple　to　Humanity　raised　by　the　disciples　of　Fourier　and

Saint…Simon；　but　it　is　certainly　true　that　their　ideal　principle

was　order　and　permanence；　not　indefinite　progress。　　For；　setting

aside　the　artistic　prejudices　which　would　have　led　the　Greeks　to

reject　this　idea　of　unlimited　improvement；　we　may　note　that　the

modern　conception　of　progress　rests　partly　on　the　new　enthusiasm

and　worship　of　humanity；　partly　on　the　splendid　hopes　of　material

improvements　in　civilisation　which　applied　science　has　held　out　to

us；　two　influences　from　which　ancient　Greek　thought　seems　to　have

been　strangely　free。　　For　the　Greeks　marred　the　perfect　humanism　of

the　great　men　whom　they　worshipped；　by　imputing　to　them　divinity

and　its　supernatural　powers；　while　their　science　was　eminently

speculative　and　often　almost　mystic　in　its　character；　aiming　at

culture　and　not　utility；　at　higher　spirituality　and　more　intense

reverence　for　law；　rather　than　at　the　increased　facilities　of

locomotion　and　the　cheap　production　of　common　things　about　which

our　modern　scientific　school　ceases　not　to　boast。　　And　lastly；　and

perhaps　chiefly；　we　must　remember　that　the　'plague　spot　of　all

Greek　states；'　as　one　of　their　own　writers　has　called　it；　was　the

terrible　insecurity　to　life　and　property　which　resulted　from　the

factions　and　revolutions　which　ceased　not　to　trouble　Greece　at　all

times；　raising　a　spirit　of　fanaticism　such　as　religion　raised　in

the　middle　ages　of　Europe。



These　considerations；　then；　will　enable　us　to　understand　first　how

it　was　that；　radical　and　unscrupulous　reformers　as　the　Greek

political　theorists　were；　yet；　their　end　once　attained；　no　modern

conservatives　raised　such　outcry　against　the　slightest　innovation。

Even　acknowledged　improvements　in　such　things　as　the　games　of

children　or　the　modes　of　music　were　regarded　by　them　with　feelings

of　extreme　apprehension　as　the　herald　of　the　DRAPEAU　ROUGE　of

reform。　　And　secondly；　it　will　show　us　how　it　was　that　Polybius

found　his　ideal　in　the　commonwealth　of　Rome；　and　Aristotle；　like

Mr。　Bright；　in　the　middle　classes。　　Polybius；　however；　is　not

content　merely　with　pointing　out　his　ideal　state；　but　enters　at

considerable　length　into　the　question　of　those　general　laws　whose

consideration　forms　the　chief　essential　of　the　philosophy　of

history。



He　starts　by　accepting　the　general　principle　that　all　things　are

fated　to　decay　（which　I　noticed　in　the　case　of　Plato）；　and　that　'as

iron　produces　rust　and　as　wood　breeds　the　animals　that　destroy　it；

so　every　state　has　in　it　the　seeds　of　its　own　corruption。'　　He　is

not；　however；　content　to　rest　there；　but　proceeds　to　deal　with　the

more　immediate　causes　of　revolutions；　which　he　says　are　twofold　in

nature；　either　external　or　internal。　　Now；　the　former；　depending　as

they　do　on　the　synchronous　conjunction　of　other　events　outside　the

sphere　of　scientific　estimation；　are　from　their　very　character

incalculable；　but　the　latter；　though　assuming　many　forms；　always

result　from　the　over…great　preponderance　of　any　single　element　to

the　detriment　of　the　others；　the　rational　law　lying　at　the　base　of

all　varieties　of　political　changes　being　that　stability　can　result

only　from　the　statical　equilibrium　produced　by　the　counteraction　of

opposing　parts；　since　the　more　simple　a　constitution　is　the　more　it

is　insecure。　　Plato　had　pointed　out　before　how　the　extreme　liberty

of　a　democracy　always　resulted　in　despotism；　but　Polybius　analyses

the　law　and　shows　the　scientific　principles　on　which　it　rests。



The　doctrine　of　the　instability　of　pure　constitutions　forms　an

important　era　in　the　philosophy　of　history。　　Its　special

applicability　to　the　politics　of　our　own　day　has　been　illustrated

in　the　rise　of　the　great　Napoleon；　when　the　French　state　had　lost

those　divisions　of　caste　and　prejudice；　of　landed　aristocracy　and

moneyed　interest；　institutions　in　which　the　vulgar　see　only

barriers　to　Liberty　but　which　are　indeed　the　only　possible　defences

against　the　coming　of　that　periodic　Sirius　of　politics；　the　＇Greek

text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇。



There　is　a　principle　which　Tocqueville　never　wearies　of　explaining；

and　which　has　been　subsumed　by　Mr。　Herbert　Spencer　under　that

general　law　common　to　all　organic　bodies　which　we　call　the

Instability　of　the　Homogeneous。　　The　various　manifestations　of　this

law；　as　shown　in　the　normal；　regular　revolutions　and　evolutions　of

the　different　forms　of　government；　（8）　are　expounded　with　great

clearness　by　Polybius；　who　claimed　for　his　theory；　in　the

Thucydidean　spirit；　that　it　is　a　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be

reproduced＇；　not　a　mere　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；

and　that　a　knowledge　of　it　will　enable　the　impartial　observer　（9）

to　discover　at　any　time　what　period　of　its　constitutional　evolution

any　particular　state　has　already　reached　and　into　what　form　it　will

be　next　differentiated；　though　possibly　the　exact　time　of　the

changes　may　be　more　or　less　uncertain。　（10）



Now　in　this　necessarily　incomplete　account　of　the　laws　of　political

revolutions　as　expounded　by　Polybius　enough　perhaps　has　been　said

to　show　what　is　his　true　position　in　the　rational　development　of

the　'Idea'　which　I　have　called　the　Philosophy　of　History；　because

it　is　the　unifying　of　history。　　Seen　darkly　as　it　is　through　the

glass　of　religion　in　the　pages　of　Herodotus；　more　metaphysical　than

scientific　with　Thucydides；　Plato　strove　to　seize　it　by　the　eagle…

flight　of　speculation；　to　reach　it　with　the　eager　grasp　of　a　soul

impatient　of　those　slower　and　surer　inductive　methods　which

Aristotle；　in　his　trenchant　criticism　of　his　greater　master；　showed

were　more　brilliant　than　any　vague　theory；　if　the　test　of

brilliancy　is　truth。



What　then　is　the　position　of　Polybius？　　Does　any　new　method　remain

for　him？　　Polybius　was　one　of　those　many　men　who　are　born　too　late

to　be　original。　　To　Thucydides　belongs　the　honour　of　being　the

first　in　the　history　of　Greek　thought　to　discern　the　supreme　calm

of　law　and　order　underlying　the　fitful　storms　of　life；　and　Plato

and　Aristotle　each　represents　a　great　new　principle。　　To　Polybius

belongs　the　office　…　how　noble　an　office　he　made　it　his　writings

show　…　of　making　more　explicit　the　ideas　which　were　implicit　in　his

predecessors；　of　showing　that　they　were　of　wider　applicability　and

perhaps　of　deeper　meaning　than　they　had　seemed　before；　of　examinin